THE CLIENTELE OF the Le Amor retirement home in the Fragrant Hills of western Beijing are noordinary folk. Staff boast that one of them taught President Hu Jintao when he was atuniversity. Another is the descendant of a nutritionist who worked for the Empress DowagerCixi, Chinas last great imperial ruler. A third is a former senior official in the partys top anti-corruption body. By the grim standards of such homes in China, it seems they are beingtreated well. If they wish, they can rent a suite of rooms, including one for a live-in servant. Allrooms have an emergency button.

　　住在北京西郊香山Le Amor退休公寓里的住戶都不是平民百姓。那里的員工自夸退休公寓里的其中一位住戶曾經(jīng)是胡錦濤在大學(xué)里的老師。還有一個(gè)住戶是以前為中國最后一個(gè)重量級(jí)的帝國統(tǒng)治者慈禧太后掌廚的御廚的后代。另外，三分之一的共產(chǎn)黨最高紀(jì)委機(jī)構(gòu)的前高級(jí)官員們。從中國的此類住宅的嚴(yán)格規(guī)格來看，這些退休干部似乎養(yǎng)尊處優(yōu)。如果他們想要的話，他們可以租上一套房間，包括一間讓寄宿保姆住下的房間。所有房間中都有一個(gè)緊急按鈕。

　　The homes director is coy about how she secured such a desirable rural location for her$10m venture, +away from the citys downtown smog. Le Amor is one of only a handful ofprivately run retirement homes in the capital aimed at the well-to-do. Looking after the elderly isa business in its infancy in China, where that task usually falls to the offspring, if any. But LeAmors market has very attractive prospects.

　　Le Amor退休公寓的總裁透露了她為什么要在這個(gè)遠(yuǎn)離城市喧囂脹氣的宜人鄉(xiāng)間建立她耗資1000萬美元的養(yǎng)老公司。在北京僅有的少數(shù)針對(duì)富人建立的私營養(yǎng)老院中，Le Amor是其中之一。在養(yǎng)老重?fù)?dān)全由子女承擔(dān)的中國，如果有養(yǎng)老業(yè)這個(gè)行業(yè)的話，它也只是剛剛起步。然而，Le Amor的市場(chǎng)擁有十分誘人的前景。

　　Over the next few years China will undergo a hugedemographic shift. The share of people over 60 inthe total population will increase from 12.5% in2010 to 20% in 2023. By 2030 their number willdouble from todays 178m. The dependency ratiothe number of people of non-working age, bothyoung and old, as a proportion of those of workingagewill bottom out between 2023 and 2023 at anexceptionally low level before rebounding, says areport by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.Put another way, Chinas demographicdividendthe availability of lots of young workerswhich helped fuel its growth will soonbegin to disappear. The overall population will start to grow faster than that of working age.One trigger for this could be a sharp economic slowdown. Many Chinese have recently becomefamiliar with the Lewis turning point, named after a 20th-century economist from St Lucia,Arthur Lewis, who said that industrial wages start to rise quickly when a countrys rural laboursurplus dries up.

　　在未來的幾年中，中國將會(huì)經(jīng)歷一次巨大的人口轉(zhuǎn)變。預(yù)計(jì)，六十歲以上的人口占總?cè)丝诘谋壤龑?huì)從2010年的12.5%上升到2023年的20%。到了2030年，中國六十歲以上的人口數(shù)量將會(huì)是現(xiàn)在178萬的兩倍之多。中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院的一份報(bào)告指出，中國的撫養(yǎng)率衡量包括年輕人和老年人的非勞動(dòng)年齡人口和勞動(dòng)年齡人口的比值將會(huì)在2023年至2023年之間降到一個(gè)極低的水平，直到反彈。另一種說法是，中國的人口紅利大量年輕勞動(dòng)力的供給曾經(jīng)刺激了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長，它馬上就要開始消失了。中國的總?cè)丝跀?shù)量將開始比勞動(dòng)年齡人口數(shù)量增加的更快。這一旦觸發(fā)就可能產(chǎn)生一次經(jīng)濟(jì)急劇放緩。現(xiàn)在，許多中國人已經(jīng)對(duì)劉易斯拐點(diǎn)十分熟悉了，劉易斯拐點(diǎn)是以一位二十世紀(jì)來自圣盧西亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Arthur Lewis的名字來命名的，他曾指出當(dāng)一個(gè)國家的農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)剩余消失時(shí)，該國的工業(yè)工資將開始快速上漲。

　　One way this will show up is in a proliferation of places like Le Amor. A lot of schools will closedown. Wang Feng of the Brookings Institution notes that Chinas primary-school enrolmentdropped from 25.3m in 1995 to 16.7m in 2008. Revoking the one-child policy would probablynot make a big difference. Chinese couples have small families mainly because children areexpensive, Mr Wang argues. Chinas rapid ageing, combined with a shrinking labour force, willfundamentally reshape the Chinese economy and society, he suggests. In the next decadethe number of people aged 20-24 will drop by 50%, Mr Wang predicts.

　　非勞動(dòng)年齡人口的增長會(huì)以像Le Amor.這樣的養(yǎng)老院擴(kuò)張的形式出現(xiàn)。許多學(xué)校將會(huì)停學(xué)。Brookings研究所的王峰指出，中國的中學(xué)錄取人數(shù)從1995年的2530萬降到了 2008年的1670萬。取消獨(dú)生子女政策可能也不會(huì)使這產(chǎn)生較大的改觀。王峰指出，中國夫婦選擇三口之家是因?yàn)閾狃B(yǎng)孩子的成本高昂。同時(shí)，他還指出，中國迅速的老齡化，隨同勞動(dòng)力萎縮會(huì)徹底的重塑中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)。王峰預(yù)計(jì)，在未來的幾十年中，中國20至24歲人口的數(shù)量將會(huì)下降到50%。

　　Optimists believe China still has several more years before the economic impact of an ageingpopulation becomes apparent. Chinas commerce minister, Chen Deming, said in March 2010that the country could still enjoy another decade of demographic dividends. In a report lastyear Morgan Stanley pointed to 80m-100m surplus labourers in the countryside who could beemployed in urban areas .It also expressed optimism about continuing productivity gains from rising levels ofeducation and technology use.

　　樂觀者們相信，中國還要度過好幾年老齡人口對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊才會(huì)變得明顯。中國商務(wù)部部長，陳德銘指出，2010年三月，中國仍然能夠享受另外一個(gè)十年的人口紅利。摩根史坦利投資公司在去年的一份報(bào)告表明，在中國農(nóng)村，能夠去城市里打工的剩余勞動(dòng)力還有8000萬到1億人。這還顯示出人們對(duì)于因?yàn)榻逃降奶岣吆图夹g(shù)的使用而引起的生產(chǎn)率的持續(xù)增長的樂觀。

　　THE CLIENTELE OF the Le Amor retirement home in the Fragrant Hills of western Beijing are noordinary folk. Staff boast that one of them taught President Hu Jintao when he was atuniversity. Another is the descendant of a nutritionist who worked for the Empress DowagerCixi, Chinas last great imperial ruler. A third is a former senior official in the partys top anti-corruption body. By the grim standards of such homes in China, it seems they are beingtreated well. If they wish, they can rent a suite of rooms, including one for a live-in servant. Allrooms have an emergency button.

　　住在北京西郊香山Le Amor退休公寓里的住戶都不是平民百姓。那里的員工自夸退休公寓里的其中一位住戶曾經(jīng)是胡錦濤在大學(xué)里的老師。還有一個(gè)住戶是以前為中國最后一個(gè)重量級(jí)的帝國統(tǒng)治者慈禧太后掌廚的御廚的后代。另外，三分之一的共產(chǎn)黨最高紀(jì)委機(jī)構(gòu)的前高級(jí)官員們。從中國的此類住宅的嚴(yán)格規(guī)格來看，這些退休干部似乎養(yǎng)尊處優(yōu)。如果他們想要的話，他們可以租上一套房間，包括一間讓寄宿保姆住下的房間。所有房間中都有一個(gè)緊急按鈕。

　　The homes director is coy about how she secured such a desirable rural location for her$10m venture, +away from the citys downtown smog. Le Amor is one of only a handful ofprivately run retirement homes in the capital aimed at the well-to-do. Looking after the elderly isa business in its infancy in China, where that task usually falls to the offspring, if any. But LeAmors market has very attractive prospects.

　　Le Amor退休公寓的總裁透露了她為什么要在這個(gè)遠(yuǎn)離城市喧囂脹氣的宜人鄉(xiāng)間建立她耗資1000萬美元的養(yǎng)老公司。在北京僅有的少數(shù)針對(duì)富人建立的私營養(yǎng)老院中，Le Amor是其中之一。在養(yǎng)老重?fù)?dān)全由子女承擔(dān)的中國，如果有養(yǎng)老業(yè)這個(gè)行業(yè)的話，它也只是剛剛起步。然而，Le Amor的市場(chǎng)擁有十分誘人的前景。

　　Over the next few years China will undergo a hugedemographic shift. The share of people over 60 inthe total population will increase from 12.5% in2010 to 20% in 2023. By 2030 their number willdouble from todays 178m. The dependency ratiothe number of people of non-working age, bothyoung and old, as a proportion of those of workingagewill bottom out between 2023 and 2023 at anexceptionally low level before rebounding, says areport by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.Put another way, Chinas demographicdividendthe availability of lots of young workerswhich helped fuel its growth will soonbegin to disappear. The overall population will start to grow faster than that of working age.One trigger for this could be a sharp economic slowdown. Many Chinese have recently becomefamiliar with the Lewis turning point, named after a 20th-century economist from St Lucia,Arthur Lewis, who said that industrial wages start to rise quickly when a countrys rural laboursurplus dries up.

　　在未來的幾年中，中國將會(huì)經(jīng)歷一次巨大的人口轉(zhuǎn)變。預(yù)計(jì)，六十歲以上的人口占總?cè)丝诘谋壤龑?huì)從2010年的12.5%上升到2023年的20%。到了2030年，中國六十歲以上的人口數(shù)量將會(huì)是現(xiàn)在178萬的兩倍之多。中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院的一份報(bào)告指出，中國的撫養(yǎng)率衡量包括年輕人和老年人的非勞動(dòng)年齡人口和勞動(dòng)年齡人口的比值將會(huì)在2023年至2023年之間降到一個(gè)極低的水平，直到反彈。另一種說法是，中國的人口紅利大量年輕勞動(dòng)力的供給曾經(jīng)刺激了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長，它馬上就要開始消失了。中國的總?cè)丝跀?shù)量將開始比勞動(dòng)年齡人口數(shù)量增加的更快。這一旦觸發(fā)就可能產(chǎn)生一次經(jīng)濟(jì)急劇放緩。現(xiàn)在，許多中國人已經(jīng)對(duì)劉易斯拐點(diǎn)十分熟悉了，劉易斯拐點(diǎn)是以一位二十世紀(jì)來自圣盧西亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Arthur Lewis的名字來命名的，他曾指出當(dāng)一個(gè)國家的農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)剩余消失時(shí)，該國的工業(yè)工資將開始快速上漲。

　　One way this will show up is in a proliferation of places like Le Amor. A lot of schools will closedown. Wang Feng of the Brookings Institution notes that Chinas primary-school enrolmentdropped from 25.3m in 1995 to 16.7m in 2008. Revoking the one-child policy would probablynot make a big difference. Chinese couples have small families mainly because children areexpensive, Mr Wang argues. Chinas rapid ageing, combined with a shrinking labour force, willfundamentally reshape the Chinese economy and society, he suggests. In the next decadethe number of people aged 20-24 will drop by 50%, Mr Wang predicts.

　　非勞動(dòng)年齡人口的增長會(huì)以像Le Amor.這樣的養(yǎng)老院擴(kuò)張的形式出現(xiàn)。許多學(xué)校將會(huì)停學(xué)。Brookings研究所的王峰指出，中國的中學(xué)錄取人數(shù)從1995年的2530萬降到了 2008年的1670萬。取消獨(dú)生子女政策可能也不會(huì)使這產(chǎn)生較大的改觀。王峰指出，中國夫婦選擇三口之家是因?yàn)閾狃B(yǎng)孩子的成本高昂。同時(shí)，他還指出，中國迅速的老齡化，隨同勞動(dòng)力萎縮會(huì)徹底的重塑中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)。王峰預(yù)計(jì)，在未來的幾十年中，中國20至24歲人口的數(shù)量將會(huì)下降到50%。

　　Optimists believe China still has several more years before the economic impact of an ageingpopulation becomes apparent. Chinas commerce minister, Chen Deming, said in March 2010that the country could still enjoy another decade of demographic dividends. In a report lastyear Morgan Stanley pointed to 80m-100m surplus labourers in the countryside who could beemployed in urban areas .It also expressed optimism about continuing productivity gains from rising levels ofeducation and technology use.

　　樂觀者們相信，中國還要度過好幾年老齡人口對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊才會(huì)變得明顯。中國商務(wù)部部長，陳德銘指出，2010年三月，中國仍然能夠享受另外一個(gè)十年的人口紅利。摩根史坦利投資公司在去年的一份報(bào)告表明，在中國農(nóng)村，能夠去城市里打工的剩余勞動(dòng)力還有8000萬到1億人。這還顯示出人們對(duì)于因?yàn)榻逃降奶岣吆图夹g(shù)的使用而引起的生產(chǎn)率的持續(xù)增長的樂觀。