India bans cotton exportsconfusing everyone, including its government

　　印度禁止棉花出口所有人都摸不著頭腦，印政府也不例外

　　WHEN Mahatma Gandhi began spinning Indian cotton on a wheel in 1918, it symbolised hisdesire for national self-sufficiency.

　　1918年，圣雄甘地開始親手紡織土布，喻以期望印度自立自強。

　　Too much of the fibre was exported to Japan and Britain, on exploitative terms, he felt.

　　他認為印度棉花多以極廉之價出口日本和英國，是對印度的傷害。

　　Almost a century on, India s cotton industry is still integrated with global production chains.

　　現如今近一個世紀過去了，印度的棉花種植業仍舊整合在全球供應鏈上。

　　Thus a decision on March 5th by the country s commerce ministry to ban exports sentmarkets around the world into a tizz.

　　而3月5日印度商務部禁止棉花出口的決定令全球市場困惑不已。

　　Derivative prices leapt on New York s trading floors.

　　紐交所相關衍生品的價格一飛沖天。

　　Panicky Y-front makers the world over worried if their contracts were void.

　　全世界的內衣制造商們都憂心重重，擔心他們的合同是否失效。

　　Excited stockbrokers in Thailand told their clients to buy the shares of polyester firms.

　　興奮的泰國證券商鼓勵客戶吃進滌綸公司的股票。

　　India, after all, is the world s second-largest exporter of cotton, after America.

　　畢竟印度是僅次于美國的全球第二大棉花出口國。

　　The commerce ministry seems to have been worried that short-term export commitmentswere more than India could comfortably meet.

　　印度商務部長可能是擔心本國的棉花產量無法滿足短期出口合約的需要。

　　It feared a spike in domestic cotton prices, followed by hoarding.

　　這主要是因為害怕囤積導致國內棉價暴漲。

　　This would hurt India s textiles industry, which uses cotton as a raw material, is not in thebest financial health and is a huge employer.

　　棉價暴漲必然會損害以本土棉花為原材料的國內紡織業，而印度紡織業財政狀況不佳且提供大量就業。

　　India temporarily banned cotton exports in 2010 in response to similar concerns.

　　此例與2010年印度曾短期禁止棉花出口原因相似。

　　And there is a troubling backdrop, too. The world cotton market went nuts in 2011, withsupply blips in some countries and high demand pushing global priceslast year to their highest since the American civil war.

　　此次禁令的國際背景也并不輕松。2011年，隨著一些供應國減產和高需求的推動，國際棉價升至了自美國內戰以來的歷史最高位，國際棉花市場著實瘋狂了一把。

　　After years of declining raw-material prices, clothes firms such as Gap announced profitwarnings and saw their shares whacked.

　　而由于原材料價格連續多年的下跌，諸如蓋璞一類的服裝企業宣布自己盈利預警并眼看著自己股價疲軟。

　　The agricultural divisions of two big trading firms, Glencore and Noble Group, were caughtwith their trousers down and lost money.

　　嘉能可和來寶集團這兩大貿易公司的農業部門，也因此而名利俱損。

　　Prices have collapsed since mid-2011, but after a roller-coaster ride everyone is jittery.

　　棉價從2011年中開始大跌，但一輪過山車般的行情之后人們變得神經兮兮。

　　China has been stockpiling a mountain of cotton, presumably to insulate its textile makersfrom shocks.

　　中國已囤積了大量的棉花，可能會使其國內紡織品商免受價格波動之苦。

　　India may in turn be worried that its own surplus is being whisked away to create a safetybuffer for the Middle Kingdom.

　　反過來印度可能會擔心，由于自己國內棉花過剩，中國可能會收購印度棉花以對沖棉價上漲的風險。

　　Hence the ban.

　　這就是此次禁令的出處吧。

　　A vicious circle of price rises, stockpiling and export bans does not make sense in themedium term for any commodity, whether cotton, onions or iron ore.

　　從中期來看，棉花、洋蔥以及鐵礦石之類的商品陷入漲價、囤積和禁令的惡性循環決不是什么好事。

　　It erodes confidence in supply chains and may dent overall production.

　　這些事情會影響對供應鏈的信心，也可能會降低總產量。

　　Behaviour that may be rational for individual actors can cause chaos if everyone copies it.

　　如果市場中的每個人都效仿某個個體的極端行為同樣會造成混亂。

　　No one expects a nation to act for the common good, but it seems doubtful that India s banis even in its own narrow interests.

　　沒人指望任何一個國家為了所有國家的共同利益而行動，但印度禁止棉花出口是否出于自身利益考慮讓人懷疑。

　　Trying to keep prices low favours textile makers but is bad for farmers who grow the stuff.

　　壓低棉花價格對紡織業有利，但損害了棉農的利益。

　　India s agriculture minister says he was not consulted about the ban.

　　印度農業部長聲稱該禁令未曾與其商討。

　　Narendra Modi, the powerful chief minister of Gujarat, a state in west India, wrote to theprime minister, Manmohan Singh, that the ban was anti-farmer.

　　印度西部古吉拉特邦的最長行政長官納倫德拉 莫迪寫信狀告總理辛格稱禁令傷農。

　　Mr Singh has promised an immediate review.

　　辛格已承諾立即調查此事。

　　That seems likely to repeal the ban.

　　如此看來此禁令可能不會長久。

　　But there may be damage to India s reputation as a reliable supplier.

　　然而此舉卻損害了印度做為可靠供貨商的信譽。

　　As the news of the ban came out Australia s agriculture minister had just launched a reportpredicting that Australia would double its cotton exports between 2010 and 2023.

　　禁令一出，澳大利亞農業部長立即發表聲明，預稱澳大利亞的棉花出口量將在2010到2023年翻一倍。

　　His view on India s ban? It s an opportunity.

　　澳大利亞農業部長是怎樣看待印度的棉花出口禁令呢?他會認為 這是個機會。

　　India bans cotton exportsconfusing everyone, including its government

　　印度禁止棉花出口所有人都摸不著頭腦，印政府也不例外

　　WHEN Mahatma Gandhi began spinning Indian cotton on a wheel in 1918, it symbolised hisdesire for national self-sufficiency.

　　1918年，圣雄甘地開始親手紡織土布，喻以期望印度自立自強。

　　Too much of the fibre was exported to Japan and Britain, on exploitative terms, he felt.

　　他認為印度棉花多以極廉之價出口日本和英國，是對印度的傷害。

　　Almost a century on, India s cotton industry is still integrated with global production chains.

　　現如今近一個世紀過去了，印度的棉花種植業仍舊整合在全球供應鏈上。

　　Thus a decision on March 5th by the country s commerce ministry to ban exports sentmarkets around the world into a tizz.

　　而3月5日印度商務部禁止棉花出口的決定令全球市場困惑不已。

　　Derivative prices leapt on New York s trading floors.

　　紐交所相關衍生品的價格一飛沖天。

　　Panicky Y-front makers the world over worried if their contracts were void.

　　全世界的內衣制造商們都憂心重重，擔心他們的合同是否失效。

　　Excited stockbrokers in Thailand told their clients to buy the shares of polyester firms.

　　興奮的泰國證券商鼓勵客戶吃進滌綸公司的股票。

　　India, after all, is the world s second-largest exporter of cotton, after America.

　　畢竟印度是僅次于美國的全球第二大棉花出口國。

　　The commerce ministry seems to have been worried that short-term export commitmentswere more than India could comfortably meet.

　　印度商務部長可能是擔心本國的棉花產量無法滿足短期出口合約的需要。

　　It feared a spike in domestic cotton prices, followed by hoarding.

　　這主要是因為害怕囤積導致國內棉價暴漲。

　　This would hurt India s textiles industry, which uses cotton as a raw material, is not in thebest financial health and is a huge employer.

　　棉價暴漲必然會損害以本土棉花為原材料的國內紡織業，而印度紡織業財政狀況不佳且提供大量就業。

　　India temporarily banned cotton exports in 2010 in response to similar concerns.

　　此例與2010年印度曾短期禁止棉花出口原因相似。

　　And there is a troubling backdrop, too. The world cotton market went nuts in 2011, withsupply blips in some countries and high demand pushing global priceslast year to their highest since the American civil war.

　　此次禁令的國際背景也并不輕松。2011年，隨著一些供應國減產和高需求的推動，國際棉價升至了自美國內戰以來的歷史最高位，國際棉花市場著實瘋狂了一把。

　　After years of declining raw-material prices, clothes firms such as Gap announced profitwarnings and saw their shares whacked.

　　而由于原材料價格連續多年的下跌，諸如蓋璞一類的服裝企業宣布自己盈利預警并眼看著自己股價疲軟。

　　The agricultural divisions of two big trading firms, Glencore and Noble Group, were caughtwith their trousers down and lost money.

　　嘉能可和來寶集團這兩大貿易公司的農業部門，也因此而名利俱損。

　　Prices have collapsed since mid-2011, but after a roller-coaster ride everyone is jittery.

　　棉價從2011年中開始大跌，但一輪過山車般的行情之后人們變得神經兮兮。

　　China has been stockpiling a mountain of cotton, presumably to insulate its textile makersfrom shocks.

　　中國已囤積了大量的棉花，可能會使其國內紡織品商免受價格波動之苦。

　　India may in turn be worried that its own surplus is being whisked away to create a safetybuffer for the Middle Kingdom.

　　反過來印度可能會擔心，由于自己國內棉花過剩，中國可能會收購印度棉花以對沖棉價上漲的風險。

　　Hence the ban.

　　這就是此次禁令的出處吧。

　　A vicious circle of price rises, stockpiling and export bans does not make sense in themedium term for any commodity, whether cotton, onions or iron ore.

　　從中期來看，棉花、洋蔥以及鐵礦石之類的商品陷入漲價、囤積和禁令的惡性循環決不是什么好事。

　　It erodes confidence in supply chains and may dent overall production.

　　這些事情會影響對供應鏈的信心，也可能會降低總產量。

　　Behaviour that may be rational for individual actors can cause chaos if everyone copies it.

　　如果市場中的每個人都效仿某個個體的極端行為同樣會造成混亂。

　　No one expects a nation to act for the common good, but it seems doubtful that India s banis even in its own narrow interests.

　　沒人指望任何一個國家為了所有國家的共同利益而行動，但印度禁止棉花出口是否出于自身利益考慮讓人懷疑。

　　Trying to keep prices low favours textile makers but is bad for farmers who grow the stuff.

　　壓低棉花價格對紡織業有利，但損害了棉農的利益。

　　India s agriculture minister says he was not consulted about the ban.

　　印度農業部長聲稱該禁令未曾與其商討。

　　Narendra Modi, the powerful chief minister of Gujarat, a state in west India, wrote to theprime minister, Manmohan Singh, that the ban was anti-farmer.

　　印度西部古吉拉特邦的最長行政長官納倫德拉 莫迪寫信狀告總理辛格稱禁令傷農。

　　Mr Singh has promised an immediate review.

　　辛格已承諾立即調查此事。

　　That seems likely to repeal the ban.

　　如此看來此禁令可能不會長久。

　　But there may be damage to India s reputation as a reliable supplier.

　　然而此舉卻損害了印度做為可靠供貨商的信譽。

　　As the news of the ban came out Australia s agriculture minister had just launched a reportpredicting that Australia would double its cotton exports between 2010 and 2023.

　　禁令一出，澳大利亞農業部長立即發表聲明，預稱澳大利亞的棉花出口量將在2010到2023年翻一倍。

　　His view on India s ban? It s an opportunity.

　　澳大利亞農業部長是怎樣看待印度的棉花出口禁令呢?他會認為 這是個機會。